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For information on reproducing Government of Ontario works, please contact ServiceOntario Publications at copyright ontario. These models are reviewed and updated to reflect more currently available data and new research findings. The review and update focuses on three receptor categories:.
For each sector model, both the biophysical and the economic valuation components are examined. Recommendations for revisions cover methodology, data, and model parameters. Scientific information on the biophysical effects of acid deposition is still incomplete.
In many cases dose-response relationships are still not available. The recommendations contained in this report, therefore, should be viewed as part of an on-going process to continually monitor available information and, when appropriate, incorporate it into the MOE models.
The review suggests that the basic structure of the models be maintained, but that the specifics for each sector be revised, Major recommendations includes 1. Modify calculation of deposition levels to i eliminate the separation of natural and anthropogenic deposition and ii tailor estimates of deposition to each sector and each type of effect.
For example, above-ground effects in forestry and agriculture should be based on wet deposition levels during the active growing season.
Change parameters of the above ground dose-response relationship for forestry so that acid deposition of average pH 3. Eliminate crop-specif ic dose-response relationships in the agricultural model in favour of a single stochastic relationship for all crop types, 4. Maintain the material category approach to estimating the effects on materials ,?
Include steel as a material at risk and revise the corrosion formula for zinc. Transfer the model to a micro-computer and combine it with a geographic information system to facilitate input, manipulation and display of spatial data. If the model is intended for active use by several parties for policy and research planning, then the code should, eventually, be rewritten.
Implementation of this report's recommendations should encourage greater use of the models and provide up-to-date estimates of the economic effects of acid deposition. RESUME En , le ministere de 1 ' Environnement de 1' Ontario a demande la conception d'un ensemble de modeles informatiques permettant d'evaluer les consequences biophysiques des depots acides et leurs impacts economiques.
Ces modeles font 1 ' ob j et d'un examen et d'une mise a jour afin de tenir compte des nouvelles donnees et decouvertes scientif iques. De plus, les comppsantes de ces modeles traitant des depots acides font 1 ' obj et d'un examen, et la structure du modele, d'une evaluation. Pour chaque modele de secteur, les compos antes d' evaluation biophysique et economique sont etudiees, Les revisions recommandees touchent la methodologie, les donnees et les parametres du modele, Les rexiseignements scientif iques sur les effets biophysiques des depots acides sont incomplets.
Dans plusieurs cas, aucune donnee sur les rapports dose-reaction n'est disponible. C'est pourquoi, les recommandations de ce rapport doivent etre considerees comme faisant partie d'un processus continu visant a recueillir les donnees disponibles et, dans certains cas, a les incorporer aux modeles du ministere.
A la suite de 1' examen, on recommande que la structure de base des modeles de soit conservee mais que les elements specif iques de chaque secteur soient reetudies. On recommande i 1. De modifier le calcul des concentrations de depots afin i d'eliminer la separation des depots naturels et anthropogeniques et ii d' adapter les evaluations de depots a chaque secteur et aux differents effets.
Par exemple, en sylviculture et en agriculture, les effets au dessus du sol devraient etre bases sur les concentrations des precipitations au cours de la saison de croissance.
De conserver la categorisation par mater iau utilisee pour evaiuer les effets sur les mater iaux; toutefois, le ministere devrait suivre les efforts visant a elaborer une banque de donnees sur les structures menacees et y contribuer dans la mesure du possible, 5.
D'inclure 1'acier dans la liste des materiaux menaces et de reetudier la formule de corrosion du zinc. De transferer le modele a un micro-ordinateur et de l'associer a un systeme d' information geographique afin de faciliter 1' entree, le traitement et la presentation des donnees spatiales.
Si le modele est utilise par plusieurs personnes pour la planif ication de politiques et de recherches, le code devrait etre eventuellement recrit. L ' application des recommandations de ce rapport devrait favor iser une plus grande utilisation des modeles et devrait fournir des estimations a jour de 1 ' impact economique des depots acides.
The review and update focused on three receptor categories:. In addition , the deposition components of these models are reviewed and the model's structure evaluated. Recommendations for revisions cover data, and model parameters.
In many cases, dose-response relationships are still not available. The following recommendations, therefore, should be viewed as part of an on-going process to continually monitor available information and, when appropriate, incorporate it into the MOE models.
The review suggests that the basic structure of the models be maintained, although changes to specifics of each sector model are recommended. The major recommendations are discussed below.
Deposition Components In the deposition components of the models, it is suggested that the separation of natural and anthropogenic deposition be eliminated. Since we are only interested in the changes in costs and benefits associated with changes from current acid deposition levels, the natural component of deposition is not needed. Furthermore, "natural" levels vary considerably from region to region and are very uncertain. The revised model should also allow the user to adjust the mix of ions in the deposition to capture the effects of emission controls e.
It is also suggested that deposition levels which are used in dose-response relationships be tailored to each sector and to each type of effect.
For example, above ground effects in forestry and agriculture should be based on wet deposition levels during the active growing season i. In the soil component of the model, parameters relating base saturation and aluminum on tree growth were not available. Changes to the economic valuation component of the forestry model focus on incorporating current management principles by basing harvest levels on Maximum Allowable Depletion concept rather than the now-outdated Annual Allowable Cut principle.
The economic effects of acid deposition are measured in the model by changes in wood harvesting costs.
It is recommended that the relationship between potential yield rather than tree size and wood costs be further analyzed, possibly drawing on output from the FORCYTE model or from a survey of private operators in Ontario ' s wood industries.
Agriculture Model There has been considerably more scientific work done on the effects of acid deposition on agricultural crops than on forest resources. Revisions to the agriculture model are suggested for above ground and soil impacts, as well as economic valuation. For above ground effects, updated information does not support crop-specific dose-response relationships.
Instead, it is recommended that a single stochastic dose-response relationship for all crop types be used. The parameters for this relationship should be based on a published review of previously estimated functions.
In the soil component, the assumption that farmers will adjust their soil management practices to maintain the same soil chemistry is kept. Within the soil management component, suggested revisions relate primarily to the modelling of sulfate fertilizer amendments. The model calculates the amount of sulfur fertilizer additions replaced by deposition on an ion by ion basis.
Sulfate deposition above this level should be considered as neither a benefit nor a cost. There are two major revisions recommended for the economic valuation of agricultural impacts.
First, changes in economic value arising from price effects should be captured. These effects should be activated by the user by specifying a price elasticity, with a default setting price effects equal to zero. Second, forecasts of agricultural production should be based on the same set of macroeconomic assumptions as forestry.
A similar recommendation holds for the economic component of the forestry model. Human Systems Model The human systems model consists of three parts:.
The necessary ingredients for a defensible model of the effects of acid deposition on materials suggests that a component approach be followed. The component approach considers damage to specific structures. The model is based on a material category approach which estimates impacts by type of material regardless of use, Unfortunately, the data base required for the component approach has not been developed, so the material category approach must be used.
It is, however, recommended that MOE monitor and, to the extent possible, contribute to efforts to develop an appropriate data base of materials at risk. In the interim, two major changes should be made to material dose-response relationships. First, the effects of acid deposition on steel should be included.
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Second, the corrosion formula for zinc should be revised. Economic valuation of the effects on materials depends on estimates of economic life and exposure factors for individual materials. In general, the MOE model uses estimates from a U. It is suggested that, until these factors are derived specifically for Ontario, they be verified by industry experts. The economic implications of acid deposition for water supply systems should be calculated as the incremental chemical cost of raising the pH of intake water to its original without acid deposition level.
To include a water supply treatment component in the model, considerable data must be collected on water flows, chemical costs, and the pH of intake water at individual treatment plants. One of the requisites for identifying the effects of acid deposition on historic buildings and structures is an inventory of structures at risk. Unfortunately, no comprehensive inventory currently exists that has information on the number, location or type of material of historic structures.
This report does, however, contain two partial lists from Public Works Canada and Environment Canada, MOE should monitor efforts to expand and refine this inventory.
The economic value of the effect of acid deposition on historic buildings and structures can be estimated by asking individuals what they would be willing to pay to avoid damage or, more practically, the cost of repairing the damage, No studies specific to acid deposition or to Ontario have been completed to date.
Some case studies should be undertaken, but written up separately from the results of the MOE computer models. However, the models are difficult to use; there are no interactive modules to prompt the user; and it is difficult to make changes to the data, model parameters or the program code itself.
If the models are intended for active use by several people for policy and research planning, then the code should, eventually, be rewritten to make it more user friendly and to facilitate sensitivity testing and model maintenance.
These issues have raised concerns and questions about appropriate policy both within Canada and internationally - especially in bilateral discussions with the United States, As the issues move into the public policy arena, it is critical that decision-makers have information suited to their needs.
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In , the Ontario Ministry of the Environment MOE commissioned the development of a set of computer models henceforth referred to as the models which may be used to estimate certain biophysical consequences of acid deposition and their economic implications. These models addressed the following receptor categories: , agriculture. Biological and physical relationships and acid deposition dose-responses which were incorporated into these models were based on available information and literature up to Similarly, inventory data was based on or earlier statistics.
In the past five years, since the models were developed, there has been considerable research and information generated on the effects and consequences of acid deposition.
This report presents the findings and recommendations of the review. The report is structured as follows: m Section 2 outlines the treatment of deposition in the model and recommendations for revision.
Sections 3 through 5 cover the forestry, agriculture, and human systems models, respectively. For each sector, the model is described, recommended revisions documented, the Victor and Burrell recommendations reviewed, and data requirements and availability noted. Section 6 covers possible computer environments for the models.